PwC’s annual report, released on July 15, predicts that global box office and cinema revenues will exceed pre-COVID-19 levels by 2026, but cinema admissions won’t fully recover in the next five years. The report also forecasts that global streaming service subscriptions will grow by 5.6% annually from 2023 to 2028, faster than the 4% annual growth in streaming revenue. Additionally, advertising revenue is expected to surpass $1 trillion by 2026, becoming the fastest-growing revenue category in the next five years.
PwC’s forecast, which covers 13 sectors across 53 countries, notes that total entertainment and media revenue grew by 5% in 2023, reaching $2.8 trillion, despite various economic and technological challenges.
However, the CAGR is expected to slow to 3.9% over the next five years, adding $597 billion to the global revenue pool, and bringing it to $3.4 trillion by 2028. The report emphasizes the necessity for business model reinvention to capture this revenue, highlighting it as an existential imperative.
Cinema revenue trends have been mixed, with a notable 30.4% year-on-year increase in box office spending in 2023 due to blockbuster releases. PwC projects that global box office revenue will surpass pre-pandemic levels in 2026, driven by a larger budget slate and increased advertising spending. The 2019 box office revenue of $38.55 billion is expected to nearly match $37.68 billion in 2025 and then exceed $40.23 billion in 2026.
Despite this, global cinema revenue will face a one-year delay in recovering to pre-pandemic levels, now anticipated in 2026 rather than 2025. This delay is attributed to stronger budget slates and major studio announcements in late 2023. PwC forecasts that global cinema revenue will reach $42.11 billion in 2025 and almost $44.00 billion in 2026, supported by higher ticket prices and growing advertising revenue.
However, cinema admissions will not return to pre-pandemic levels by 2028, with an estimated shortfall of 1.5 billion admissions compared to 2019 levels. North American admissions are also projected to decline significantly from 1.3 billion in 2019 to 953 million by 2028, influenced by changes in consumer habits, the rise of streaming platforms, inflation, and superhero movie fatigue.
In the streaming sector, revenue growth is slowing due to market saturation and consumer fatigue over the number of streaming options. PwC projects a 5% CAGR in global subscriptions, rising to 2.1 billion by 2028.
However, the average revenue per subscription is expected to see minimal growth, from $65.21 in 2023 to $67.66 in 2028. This has led streaming services to explore new revenue models, such as ad-supported tiers, live sports, and cracking down on password sharing.
Advertising revenue is set to play a more significant role in streaming, with projections that it will constitute almost 28% of all streaming revenue by 2028, up from 20% in 2023.
Total advertising revenue is expected to grow at a 6.7% CAGR, reaching $1 trillion in 2026 and doubling the revenue of 2020 by 2028. Internet advertising, in particular, is a major growth driver, projected to account for 77.1% of total ad spending by 2028.
Gaming and e-sports continue to be among the fastest-growing sectors, with revenues reaching $227.6 billion in 2023 and expected to exceed $300 billion by 2027. Live music, driven by large events and tours, saw a 26% revenue increase, making up over half of the overall music market.
AI is also highlighted as a transformative force, with significant implications for content creation and business model innovation in the entertainment and media industry.
