Super Bowl 58 Prop Picks: Expert Analysis and Value Plays

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Brock Purdy of 49ers (Credits: Getty Images)

Plenty of talent will grace the field in Super Bowl 58 as the 49ers take on the Chiefs, but the spotlight may be on the kickers. Harrison Butker, in his seventh season as the Kansas City place-kicker, faces off against Jake Moody, who has navigated a challenging rookie season with the 49ers.

The 2024 Super Bowl NFL props outline the over/under for field goals made by both players at 1.5. However, the 49ers are favored at -130 to miss the first field goal, with K.C. at +105.

Moody boasts a higher kicking points total at 7.5 but is priced at -127 to go under, while Butker is at -142 to surpass his 6.5 total in the Chiefs vs. 49ers player props.

Super Bowl 58, featuring the Chiefs vs. 49ers, is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, Feb. 11 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, airing on CBS and Paramount+. With hundreds of NFL props available on Super Bowl Sunday, astute bettors can uncover value in NFL player props through meticulous analysis of the matchups.

Before finalizing any Super Bowl 58 prop picks on platforms like PrizePicks, it’s imperative to review the top NFL picks and predictions from SportsLine’s NFL props expert, Alex Selesnick.

Brock Purdy of 49ers (Credits: Getty Images)

Known as PropStarz, Selesnick specializes in NFL, MLB, and NBA prop betting, employing a blend of research, statistical analysis, and mathematical modeling.

The expert has exhibited exceptional accuracy across all sports, currently holding a remarkable 70-51 streak on his NFL props picks for SportsLine, resulting in a profit of $764 for $100 bettors. Additionally, Selesnick achieved a 174-152 record on MLB prop plays for SportsLine this season and boasts a 522-425 performance on NBA props over the past two seasons.

After meticulously reviewing the extensive array of prop bets for the 2024 Super Bowl, PropStarz has identified the value picks that stand out to him.

One particular play that PropStarz is enthusiastically endorsing for his Super Bowl 58 props involves 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy going under 261.5 passing/rushing yards.

The expert suggests that you can confidently bet against the MVP finalist, especially considering his recent performances. “Purdy has not looked like the MVP candidate we saw for the majority of the regular season,” notes PropStarz. Despite averaging 267 passing yards per game in the regular season and maintaining a 260-yard average in the playoffs, the Chiefs have consistently stifled opposing quarterbacks, not allowing more than 259 passing yards throughout the season.

PropStarz emphasizes the vulnerability of the Chiefs against the run, stating, “The Chiefs are far more vulnerable on the ground.” He anticipates that the 49ers will heavily rely on their rushing attack, particularly with the NFL rushing champion, Christian McCaffrey, who amassed 1,459 yards in the regular season and has added 188 in two playoff games.

Kansas City’s defense allowed an average of 113 rushing yards per game in the regular season (ranking 18th in the NFL). Additionally, the Chiefs recorded an impressive 57 sacks (second in the league), making it unlikely for the 49ers to solely rely on Purdy to secure the victory.

By Mridul Sharma

Mridul has been an anime enthusiast since high school and hasn't looked back since. He's currently contemplating whether to watch One Piece once the series concludes or read it to catch up, especially with the final arc in progress. Mridul also has a complex relationship with Souls games, oscillating between love and frustration.

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